The gap between contract and spot is widening: TrendForce expects Q4 contract prices to keep climbing, while spot buyers of DDR4 and NAND have stepped back and are waiting for prices to come down.
| 제품 | 가격 | 우와 | 전년 대비 |
|---|---|---|---|
| DDR4-8GDDR4 8Gb(1Gx8) 3200 | $47.25USD / 칩 | +2.55% | +856.00% |
| DDR4-16GDDR4 16Gb(2Gx8) 3200 | $83.41USD / 칩 | +5.23% | +686.00% |
| DDR5-16GDDR5 16Gb(2Gx8) 4800/5600 | $62.66USD / 칩 | +2.73% | +484.00% |
| NAND-TLC-512G3D TLC NAND 512Gb 다이 | $16.19USD / 칩 | +4.78% | +145.00% |
| RDIMM-64GDDR5 RDIMM 64GB (32x 16Gb) | $2,071USD / 모듈 | +2.98% | +455.00% |
| HBM3E-36GHBM3E 36GB 12-하이 스택 | $2,096USD / 스택 | +0.28% | +14.00% |
| HBM4-48GHBM4 48GB 16-Hi 스택 | $3,530USD / 스택 | -0.58% | +0.00% |
| RTL-32G소매용 DDR5 32GB 키트(2x16, 6000 CL30) | $463.33USD / 키트 | +1.18% | +230.00% |
계약 prices are still heading up. TrendForce expects conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 10-15% in Q4 from Q3, and NAND contract prices 15-20%. Its 4 Nov bulletin adds that server RDIMM contract prices rose, by different amounts per capacity.
DDR4 spot has turned slightly lower. The mainstream DDR4 1Gx8 3200 chip averaged $46.82 on 3 Nov, down 0.09% from $46.86. DDR4 16Gb printed $82.719 on 2 Nov. TrendForce says DDR4 spot sits above suppliers' official quotes, so buyers expect a correction and volume has shrunk.
DDR5 is flat, not falling. DDR5 16Gb held at $61.50 on 2 Nov. Some buyers raised target prices because of delivery pressure, but high component costs are limiting how far they will chase.
NAND spot is the clearest downside on the board. 512Gb TLC wafer spot fell 4.33% in the week to 3 Nov, after a 9.19% drop to $16.883 the week before. Our $16.15 level is 산출값 from those two TrendForce figures. Double 11 discounts are not expected to revive demand.
HBM supply is being locked up. TrendForce reports SK hynix has agreed next year's HBM4 volume and price, and Samsung says next year's supply is sold out. Suppliers are moving more DRAM onto long-term agreements with floor prices and prepayments.
| 제품 | 가격 | 우와 | 전년 대비 |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSMC-N2TSMC N2(2nm) 300mm 웨이퍼 | $30,008USD / 웨이퍼 | +0.62% | +11.11% |
| GPU-B200NVIDIA B200 가속기(모듈) | $34,187USD/단위 | -0.52% | +9.68% |
| CoWoS-LCoWoS-L 고급 패키징 | $6,489USD / 인터포저 | +3.18% | +18.18% |
| MCU-3232비트 자동차/산업용 MCU | $3.15USD/단위 | +0.06% | -4.55% |
가격을 움직인 세 가지 헤드라인
- DRAM상승 위험
TrendForce sees Q4 DRAM contract prices up 10-15% and NAND up 15-20% as spot trade stalls
The prices big buyers actually pay are still rising, even as the open market goes quiet.
Capital Times citing TrendForce ↗ - NAND하락 위험
Weekly spot: DDR4 1Gx8 dips 0.09% to $46.82; 512Gb TLC NAND wafers fall 4.33%
Two straight weekly NAND wafer drops are the strongest sign of softness on the board.
TrendForce weekly memory spot-price update ↗ - HBM상승 위험
TrendForce: server RDIMM contract prices rise; HBM4 supply for next year 보고값 sold out
With next year's HBM4 already committed, HBM 가격 is now set in long-term deals rather than spot.
TrendForce DRAM Market Bulletin ↗
위의 모든 레벨은 동일한 세션입니다. 라이브 보드 표시되며 각각은 보고, 파생 또는 추정으로 표시됩니다. 방법론.