The gap between contract and spot is widening: TrendForce expects Q4 contract prices to keep climbing, while spot buyers of DDR4 and NAND have stepped back and are waiting for prices to come down.
| 产品 | 价格 | 哇 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| DDR4-8GDDR4 8Gb (1Gx8) 3200 | $47.25美元 / 芯片 | +2.55% | +856.00% |
| DDR4-16GDDR4 16Gb (2Gx8) 3200 | $83.41美元 / 芯片 | +5.23% | +686.00% |
| DDR5-16GDDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) 4800/5600 | $62.66美元 / 芯片 | +2.73% | +484.00% |
| NAND-TLC-512G3D TLC NAND 512Gb 芯片 | $16.19美元 / 芯片 | +4.78% | +145.00% |
| RDIMM-64GDDR5 RDIMM 64GB (32x 16Gb) | $2,071美元 / 模块 | +2.98% | +455.00% |
| HBM3E-36GHBM3E 36GB 12 层堆栈 | $2,096美元 / 堆栈 | +0.28% | +14.00% |
| HBM4-48GHBM4 48GB 16 层堆栈 | $3,530美元 / 堆栈 | -0.58% | +0.00% |
| RTL-32G零售 DDR5 32GB 套件（2x16、6000 CL30） | $463.33美元/套 | +1.18% | +230.00% |
合同 prices are still heading up. TrendForce expects conventional DRAM contract prices to rise 10-15% in Q4 from Q3, and NAND contract prices 15-20%. Its 4 Nov bulletin adds that server RDIMM contract prices rose, by different amounts per capacity.
DDR4 spot has turned slightly lower. The mainstream DDR4 1Gx8 3200 chip averaged $46.82 on 3 Nov, down 0.09% from $46.86. DDR4 16Gb printed $82.719 on 2 Nov. TrendForce says DDR4 spot sits above suppliers' official quotes, so buyers expect a correction and volume has shrunk.
DDR5 is flat, not falling. DDR5 16Gb held at $61.50 on 2 Nov. Some buyers raised target prices because of delivery pressure, but high component costs are limiting how far they will chase.
NAND spot is the clearest downside on the board. 512Gb TLC wafer spot fell 4.33% in the week to 3 Nov, after a 9.19% drop to $16.883 the week before. Our $16.15 level is 计算值 from those two TrendForce figures. Double 11 discounts are not expected to revive demand.
HBM supply is being locked up. TrendForce reports SK hynix has agreed next year's HBM4 volume and price, and Samsung says next year's supply is sold out. Suppliers are moving more DRAM onto long-term agreements with floor prices and prepayments.
| 产品 | 价格 | 哇 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSMC-N2台积电 N2 (2nm) 300mm 晶圆 | $30,008美元/晶圆 | +0.62% | +11.11% |
| GPU-B200NVIDIA B200 加速器（模块） | $34,187美元/单位 | -0.52% | +9.68% |
| CoWoS-LCoWoS-L先进封装 | $6,489美元/中介层 | +3.18% | +18.18% |
| MCU-3232位汽车/工业MCU | $3.15美元/单位 | +0.06% | -4.55% |
三个影响价格的头条新闻
- DRAM上行风险
TrendForce sees Q4 DRAM contract prices up 10-15% and NAND up 15-20% as spot trade stalls
The prices big buyers actually pay are still rising, even as the open market goes quiet.
Capital Times citing TrendForce ↗ - NAND下行风险
Weekly spot: DDR4 1Gx8 dips 0.09% to $46.82; 512Gb TLC NAND wafers fall 4.33%
Two straight weekly NAND wafer drops are the strongest sign of softness on the board.
TrendForce weekly memory spot-price update ↗ - HBM上行风险
TrendForce: server RDIMM contract prices rise; HBM4 supply for next year 报告值 sold out
With next year's HBM4 already committed, HBM 定价 is now set in long-term deals rather than spot.
TrendForce DRAM Market Bulletin ↗