August closed at record fixed transaction prices for both DRAM and NAND, but the monthly pace slowed and Q3 guidance keeps getting trimmed — the level is still making highs while the rate of change rolls over.
| 产品 | 价格 | 哇 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| DDR4-8GDDR4 8Gb (1Gx8) 3200 | $45.69美元 / 芯片 | +2.55% | +860.00% |
| DDR4-16GDDR4 16Gb (2Gx8) 3200 | $82.96美元 / 芯片 | +5.23% | +690.00% |
| DDR5-16GDDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) 4800/5600 | $58.54美元 / 芯片 | +2.72% | +480.00% |
| RDIMM-64GDDR5 RDIMM 64GB (32x 16Gb) | $1,953美元 / 模块 | +2.98% | +455.00% |
| HBM3E-36GHBM3E 36GB 12 层堆栈 | $2,108美元 / 堆栈 | +0.28% | +14.00% |
| HBM4-48GHBM4 48GB 16 层堆栈 | $3,521美元 / 堆栈 | -0.58% | +0.00% |
| eSSD-30T企业级SSD 30.72TB QLC | $4,649美元/驱动器 | +3.51% | +165.00% |
| RTL-32G零售 DDR5 32GB 套件（2x16、6000 CL30） | $467.78美元/套 | +1.18% | +230.00% |
Records and deceleration are happening at the same time. August fixed transaction prices set highs across DRAM and NAND, yet the month-on-month step was smaller than July's, and Sigmaintell now has several Q3 categories under 10% QoQ against the +13-18% that was being quoted in early summer.
The DDR4 squeeze has not resolved. Legacy 16Gb and 8Gb parts remain the most violent lines on the board because buyers on locked industrial and networking BOMs cannot requalify out of nodes the tier-1s are retiring — supply, not demand, is setting that price.
HBM is the one place with a genuine two-price market. HBM3E spot is 报告值 at 4-5x long-term agreement levels, and Korean export data has HBM averaging above $70 a unit; anything sold on allocation barely moves week to week, which is why the board looks calm 和 tape does not.
零售业一直落后于模具。本月 DDR5 零售综合价格运行在个位数左右，而基础合约模具的波动较大——零售吸收较晚，然后突然吸收，这通常是消费者需求开始突破的地方。
看二阶导数，而不是标题。本周期的每一个熊市信号都首先出现在指引中，然后出现在图表中；目前，指引已被两次下调，但董事会并未变红。
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| 产品 | 价格 | 哇 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSMC-N2台积电 N2 (2nm) 300mm 晶圆 | $30,013美元/晶圆 | +0.62% | +11.11% |
| GPU-B200NVIDIA B200 加速器（模块） | $34,049美元/单位 | -0.52% | +9.68% |
| CoWoS-LCoWoS-L先进封装 | $6,478美元/中介层 | +3.18% | +18.18% |
| MCU-3232位汽车/工业MCU | $3.14美元/单位 | +0.06% | -4.55% |
三个影响价格的头条新闻
- DRAM下行风险
群智咨询：Q3内存涨价大幅收窄，部分品类环比涨幅低于10%
最清晰的读物是，即使水平保持打印记录，增幅仍在缩小。
群智咨询（Sigmaintell）通过 ChainCatcher ↗ - DRAM市场数据
DRAM and NAND fixed transaction prices set August records, but the monthly pace slowed
创纪录的八月印刷量和较慢的月度印刷速度是该周期在一个数据点上的双面故事。
亚洲商报 ↗ - HBM上行风险
TrendForce：HBM3E现货据说是长期协议水平的4-5倍；据报道三星将锁定到 2031 年
现货与合约的 4-5 倍价差是董事会中最广泛的错位，也是 HBM 在这里看起来持平的原因。
TrendForce ↗