Legacy DDR4 is still the most violent line on the board, HBM4 has a first credible print at ~$500/stack, and the first real bear signal of the cycle showed up in fab capex — not in prices.
| Product | Price | WoW | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| DDR4-8GDDR4 8Gb (1Gx8) 3200 | $42.01USD / die | +2.55% | +860.00% |
| DDR4-16GDDR4 16Gb (2Gx8) 3200 | $86.27USD / die | +5.23% | +690.00% |
| DDR5-16GDDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) 4800/5600 | $51.04USD / die | +2.72% | +480.00% |
| RDIMM-64GDDR5 RDIMM 64GB (32x 16Gb) | $1,750USD / module | +2.98% | +455.00% |
| HBM3E-36GHBM3E 36GB 12-Hi Stack | $299.96USD / stack | +0.28% | +14.00% |
| HBM4-48GHBM4 48GB 16-Hi Stack | $501.42USD / stack | -0.58% | +0.00% |
| eSSD-30TEnterprise SSD 30.72TB QLC | $4,627USD / drive | +3.51% | +165.00% |
| RTL-32GRetail DDR5 32GB Kit (2x16, 6000 CL30) | $403.76USD / kit | +1.18% | +230.00% |
The story is still the node, not the generation. DDR4 8Gb and 16Gb — parts the tier-1s are trying to exit — are outrunning DDR5 on a YoY basis by a wide margin, because industrial and networking buyers with locked BOMs cannot requalify out of them.
HBM stays boring on purpose. Allocation contracts do not move week to week; the number that matters is HBM4 entering qualification at roughly $500 a stack, which reprices the whole accelerator BOM for 2027 parts.
The bear case has a date on it now. SK hynix approving $38B of new fabs is the first credible path back to oversupply — but new front-end capacity takes seven to nine quarters to produce bits, so the risk lands in 2027-28, not this quarter.
Retail is the lagging indicator that finally caught up: US DDR5 kit pricing is up double digits over 30 days, which is when consumer press notices and demand starts to self-destruct.
| Product | Price | WoW | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSMC-N2TSMC N2 (2nm) 300mm wafer | $30,013USD / wafer | +0.62% | +11.11% |
| GPU-B200NVIDIA B200 accelerator (module) | $33,995USD / unit | -0.52% | +9.68% |
| CoWoS-LCoWoS-L advanced packaging | $6,507USD / interposer | +3.18% | +18.18% |
| MCU-3232-bit automotive/industrial MCU | $3.15USD / unit | +0.06% | -4.55% |
Three headlines that moved a price
- CapexDownside risk
SK hynix drops 5% after approving $38B of new memory fabs; Seagate falls 7%
The first credible supply answer to this cycle — and the market read it as bearish within a day.
24/7 Wall St. ↗ - PolicyDownside risk
CXMT eyes a second Beijing DRAM plant as China pushes toward Micron-scale output
A second CXMT plant is the one variable that can break DDR4 pricing faster than the tier-1s can exit it.
Seeking Alpha ↗ - RetailDownside risk
Memory price surge begins to cool as consumers hit an affordability limit
Demand destruction is the other way this cycle ends, and retail is where it shows up first.
Yahoo Finance ↗
Every level above is the same session print the live board shows, and each is flagged reported, derived or estimate in the methodology.