MemoryIndex Weekly

Records and deceleration are happening at the same time. August fixed transaction prices set highs across DRAM and NAND, yet the month-on-month step was smaller than July's, and Sigmaintell now has several Q3 categories under 10% QoQ against the +13-18% that was being quoted in early summer.

DDR4 スクイーズは解決されていません。従来の 16Gb および 8Gb 部品は、依然として取締役会で最も激しいラインとなっています。ロックされた産業用およびネットワーク BOM の購入者は、ティア 1 が廃止されるノードから再資格を得ることができないためです。需要ではなく供給がその価格を設定しています。

HBM is the one place with a genuine two-price market. HBM3E spot is 報告値 at 4-5x long-term agreement levels, and Korean export data has HBM averaging above $70 a unit; anything sold on allocation barely moves week to week, which is why the board looks calm そして tape does not.

Retail keeps lagging the die. The DDR5 retail composite is running mid-single digits on the month against larger moves in the underlying contract dies — retail absorbs late, then all at once, and that is usually where consumer demand starts to break.

Watch the second derivative, not the headline. Every bear signal this cycle has arrived in guidance first and in prints second; guidance has now been cut twice without the board turning red.

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