Legacy DDR4 is still the fastest line on the board, HBM finally has a public export print at $76 a unit — and for the first time this cycle the forward guidance moved down, not up.
| 产品 | 价格 | 哇 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| DDR4-8GDDR4 8Gb (1Gx8) 3200 | $45.69美元 / 芯片 | +2.55% | +860.00% |
| DDR4-16GDDR4 16Gb (2Gx8) 3200 | $82.96美元 / 芯片 | +5.23% | +690.00% |
| DDR5-16GDDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) 4800/5600 | $58.54美元 / 芯片 | +2.72% | +480.00% |
| RDIMM-64GDDR5 RDIMM 64GB (32x 16Gb) | $1,953美元 / 模块 | +2.98% | +455.00% |
| HBM3E-36GHBM3E 36GB 12 层堆栈 | $2,108美元 / 堆栈 | +0.28% | +14.00% |
| HBM4-48GHBM4 48GB 16 层堆栈 | $3,521美元 / 堆栈 | -0.58% | +0.00% |
| eSSD-30T企业级SSD 30.72TB QLC | $4,649美元/驱动器 | +3.51% | +165.00% |
| RTL-32G零售 DDR5 32GB 套件（2x16、6000 CL30） | $467.78美元/套 | +1.18% | +230.00% |
The node squeeze is doing more work than the generation. DDR4 16Gb is the week's biggest mover and DDR4 8Gb has printed a record $25.00 contract, because buyers on locked industrial and networking BOMs cannot requalify out of parts the tier-1s are retiring.
第一个真正的熊市信号是在指引中，而不是在磁带中。原本定为环比+13-18%的合同谈判已下调至+8-13%，群智咨询 (Sigmaintell) 现在有几个类别的环比涨幅低于 10%——价格仍在上涨，但二阶导数已经转向。
HBM is decoupled from the board and behaving like it. Korean export data puts HBM at $76.13 a unit, the first time above $70, yet HBM3E and HBM4 barely move week to week because they are sold on multi-quarter allocation, not spot.
零售业落后于模具，这一差距就是答案。本周，32GB 套件的价格上涨了个位数，而基础 16Gb DDR4 和 DDR5 芯片的价格则上涨了中个位数——零售业吸收较晚，然后突然全部吸收，而这正是消费者需求开始自我毁灭的时候。
包装, not wafers, is the constraint that has not eased. CoWoS-L is the strongest line on the semis strip while N2 wafers and B200 accelerators are flat to down, which keeps the AI bottleneck downstream of the fab and keeps HBM allocation tight into 2027.
| 产品 | 价格 | 哇 | 同比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSMC-N2台积电 N2 (2nm) 300mm 晶圆 | $30,013美元/晶圆 | +0.62% | +11.11% |
| GPU-B200NVIDIA B200 加速器（模块） | $34,049美元/单位 | -0.52% | +9.68% |
| CoWoS-LCoWoS-L先进封装 | $6,478美元/中介层 | +3.18% | +18.18% |
| MCU-3232位汽车/工业MCU | $3.14美元/单位 | +0.06% | -4.55% |
三个影响价格的头条新闻
- DRAM市场数据
HBM 挤压将传统 PC DRAM 推向历史新高：DDR4 8Gb 合约触及 25.00 美元，环比增长 4.17%
报废节点上创纪录的合约价格是衡量 HBM 转换导致商品供应严重不足的最明确指标。
首尔经济日报 ↗ - HBM市场数据
Korean HBM export price tops $70 a unit for the first time, averaging $76.13 as HBM4 ships in volume
HBM 几乎没有公开定价，因此海关得出的平均价格为 76.13 美元，是最接近打印的 HBM 数字的。
首尔经济日报 ↗ - DRAM下行风险
由于买家不再同意加价，DRAM 合同指导从环比 +13–18% 下调至 +8–13%
指导是记忆周期中首先要打破的事情，也是运行的第一个切入点。
硬件克星 ↗