When will RAM prices go down?
Nobody can date the turn — but the signals that move first are all on this page.
Quick answer: as of 2026-10-12, DDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) 4800/5600 is $58.12 USD / die, +5.06% over 30 days and +480.00% year over year. Across the 6 contracts tracked on this page the basket is +9.59% over 30 days and +405.83% year over year.
Memory cycles end when bit supply catches demand, and that is a manufacturing timeline, not a sentiment one: seven to nine quarters from a new fab's tool-in to meaningful output, with much of the new capacity pre-committed to HBM. The turn shows up in a fixed order — spot before contract, dies before modules, modules before retail kits. Track the 30-day column below across the die rows; that is the leading edge.
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Tracked contracts
6 contracts · basket 30d +9.59% · basket YoY +405.83%
| Contract | Spot | Daily H / L | Session H / L | 30d | YoY | Chart | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DDR5-16G DDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) 4800/5600 24 Sep session average. Demand remains selective even as the published average holds near its cycle high. USD / die | $58.12 | $59.51 $56.15 | $59.51 $51.69 | +5.06% | +480.00% | Chart ↗ | DRAMeXchange / TrendForce spot board reported · 2026-09-24 |
DDR5-16G-eTT DDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) eTT Untested die. The eTT-to-branded gap is the cleanest read on how tight qualified supply is. USD / die | $25.32 | $26.06 $24.79 | $26.06 $22.27 | +0.67% | +330.00% | Chart ↗ | DRAMeXchange / TrendForce spot board reported · 2026-09-24 |
DDR4-16G DDR4 16Gb (2Gx8) 3200 24 Sep session average. The negative session move is an early cooling signal after the legacy-node squeeze. USD / die | $81.63 | $84.75 $78.55 | $84.75 $72.49 | +6.14% | +690.00% | Chart ↗ | DRAMeXchange / TrendForce spot board reported · 2026-09-24 |
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Daily H/L is the current quote day's range; session H/L is the trailing 30-day quoting window. Last updated .
Get the When RAM prices go down moves every Monday — week-over-week and year-over-year on the contracts above, plus the three headlines that moved a price.
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What changed this month
Computed from the rows above · session 2026-10-12
The leading edge. Dies turn before modules and long before retail kits.
Lags the die board by roughly four to eight weeks in both directions.
A turn needs most of this basket negative for several consecutive readings.
Coolest row this session is DDR5 16Gb (2Gx8) eTT at +0.67% over 30 days; the hottest is Retail DDR5 64GB Kit (2x32, 6000 CL30) at +24.36%. Dies are still printing positive, so the cycle has not turned — on this data, waiting is still costing money. Retail is running hotter than the die board, which is typical late in an upswing as channel inventory reprices.
Supply and demand timeline
What has to physically happen before prices can fall, and roughly when.
- Now — next 2 quartersContract prices keep resetting upward
TrendForce's quarterly contract assessments have run positive for consecutive quarters across server DRAM and enterprise SSD. Contract settlements lag spot, so today's spot level is already inside next quarter's contract print.
- Next 2 — 4 quartersNew wafer capacity begins tool-in
Samsung, SK hynix and Micron have all guided to higher DRAM capex, but tool-in is not output. Equipment installed today converts to shipped bits roughly four to six quarters later, and yields ramp gradually behind that.
- Next 4 — 7 quartersHBM4 ramp decides how many bits reach commodity DRAM
HBM consumes roughly three times the wafer area per shipped bit versus standard DDR5. If HBM4 qualification volumes land at the high end of supplier plans, incremental wafers are absorbed there and commodity relief slips further out.
- Next 7 — 9 quartersGreenfield fab output reaches meaningful scale
The full greenfield cycle — shell, tool-in, qualification, yield ramp — is seven to nine quarters. This is the earliest window in which supply, rather than demand destruction, ends the cycle.
- Wildcard, any quarterAI accelerator order pullback
The fastest possible unwind. Cancelled or deferred accelerator orders free HBM-allocated capacity back to commodity DRAM within a quarter or two — far faster than any fab can. Watch hyperscaler capex commentary, not memory suppliers.
Four ways this cycle can end
Each scenario has a distinct tell in the table above — that is what to watch, rather than a forecast date.
| Scenario | Trigger | Timing | Shape | Tell in the data |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grind higher | AI demand holds, new wafers keep going to HBM | No relief inside 4 quarters | Spot keeps printing positive 30-day; retail follows with a 4–8 week lag | Die rows below stay positive on 30-day while eTT–branded spread stays wide |
| Plateau | Demand flattens, first new capacity qualifies | 2–4 quarters | 30-day change compresses toward zero before it turns negative; contract lags a quarter | Die-level 30-day drops below the retail 30-day — spot cools first |
| Supply-led unwind | Greenfield output lands while HBM mix normalises | 5–9 quarters | Sustained negative die prints, then modules, then retail kits | Three or more consecutive negative die readings across DDR5 and DDR4 |
| Demand shock | AI accelerator orders cut or deferred | 1–2 quarters | Fastest and sharpest; HBM-allocated wafers flood back to commodity DRAM | HBM rows stall while DDR5 die 30-day rolls over in the same window |
Timing ranges are our reading of publicly reported fab lead times and supplier capex guidance, not a vendor forecast. See methodology for how each row is sourced, and why RAM prices are so high for the causes behind the current level.
Latest supply-chain news
All chip news ↗- DRAMMarket data
24 Sep spot board: DDR5 16Gb reaches $57.667 while DDR4 16Gb slips to $83.784
DDR5 16Gb 4800/5600 averaged $57.667 (+0.29% session) and eTT reached $25.500 (+0.79%). DDR4 diverged: 8Gb 3200 averaged $46.107 (+0.47%), while 16Gb 3200 fell 0.70% to $83.784. These are session changes on the published board, not 30-day returns.
DRAMeXchange / TrendForce spot board ↗ - DRAMMarket data
17 Sep spot board: DDR5 averages $55.23; DDR4 16Gb retreats 1.85%
DDR5 16Gb 4800/5600 averaged $55.233 (+0.73%) and DDR5 eTT averaged $24.50 (+0.82%). DDR4 split: 8Gb 3200 rose 0.78% to $46.143 while 16Gb 3200 fell 1.85% to $86.00. The board remains historically expensive, but the first visible corrections are appearing in select legacy parts.
DRAMeXchange / TrendForce spot board ↗ - NANDDownside risk
512Gb TLC NAND slips to $20.083 as consumer buying stays weak
The 512Gb TLC wafer spot reference fell another 0.31% to $20.083 on 14 September after a 2.71% weekly decline to $20.146. Consumer purchasing remains cautious even while enterprise SSD demand keeps contract pricing elevated.
TrendForce ↗ - DRAMMarket data
Spot board, 1 Sep: DDR5 16Gb $54.08, DDR4 16Gb $92.02, DDR4 8Gb $44.54 — all up under half a percent
The 1 September session closed with DDR5 16Gb 4800/5600 at a $54.083 average (+0.31%), DDR4 16Gb 3200 at $92.024 (+0.27%) and DDR4 8Gb 3200 at $44.544 (+0.40%). Every line is still green, but the daily session moves are now fractions of a percent rather than the multi-point jumps of June and July. The spread is the story: DDR4 16Gb printed a $117.00 high against a $42.20 low in the same session.
DRAMeXchange / TrendForce spot board ↗
Keep digging
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- MemoryIndex composite price index
- Why are RAM prices so high?
- When will RAM prices go down?
- HBM vs DRAM price comparison
- DRAM vs NAND prices
- HBM3 vs HBM3E vs HBM4
- Samsung vs SK hynix vs Micron
- Memory manufacturer leaderboard
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- Methodology & data sources
FAQ
- When will RAM prices go down?
- Not on a schedule anyone can promise. The binding constraint is bit supply: a greenfield DRAM fab takes roughly seven to nine quarters from tool-in to meaningful output, and much of the new capacity is earmarked for HBM. Until those bits land or AI accelerator demand cools, the structural pressure stays.
- What is the first sign that RAM prices are falling?
- Spot before contract, dies before modules. A sustained negative 30-day print on the DDR5 and DDR4 die rows in the table above is the earliest reliable signal; retail kit prices follow four to eight weeks later. One negative week is noise — look for several consecutive readings across multiple dies.
- Should I buy RAM now or wait?
- Look at the 30-day column above rather than a forecast. While die-level 30-day change is still positive across the basket, waiting has historically cost more than buying. When the die rows turn negative and stay negative, waiting starts to pay.
- Could DDR4 prices come back down?
- DDR4 is the least likely to normalise, because the supply reduction is permanent: nodes being retired do not come back. End-of-life memory nodes historically stay expensive and get scarcer rather than cheaper.
- What would break the cycle fastest?
- A pullback in AI accelerator orders would free HBM-allocated capacity back to commodity DRAM faster than any new fab. That is why the chip news and AI company capex pages here are worth watching alongside the price table.
- How long do memory down-cycles usually take to arrive?
- Historically the turn comes two to four quarters after suppliers add wafer capacity faster than bit demand grows — the 2018-19 and 2022-23 downturns both followed that pattern. The difference this cycle is that a large share of incremental wafers is consumed by HBM, which uses roughly three times the die area per shipped bit, so the same wafer additions deliver fewer commodity bits.
- Will DDR5 fall before DDR4?
- Almost certainly. DDR5 sits on leading-edge nodes that suppliers are actively expanding, so new bits land there first. DDR4 supply is being retired rather than added, which is why its 30-day and year-over-year prints on this page keep running ahead of DDR5.